MCLLH

A binned likelihood for stochastic models. Metrics of model goodness-of-fit, model comparison, and model parameter estimation are the main categories of statistical problems in science. Bayesian and frequentist methods that address these questions often rely on a likelihood function, which is the key ingredient in order to assess the plausibility of model parameters given observed data. In some complex systems or experimental setups, predicting the outcome of a model cannot be done analytically, and Monte Carlo techniques are used. In this paper, we present a new analytic likelihood that takes into account Monte Carlo uncertainties, appropriate for use in the large and small sample size limits. Our formulation performs better than semi-analytic methods, prevents strong claims on biased statements, and provides improved coverage properties compared to available methods.

References in zbMATH (referenced in 1 article , 1 standard article )

Showing result 1 of 1.
Sorted by year (citations)

  1. Arg├╝elles, C. A.; Schneider, A.; Yuan, T.: A binned likelihood for stochastic models (2019)